Files Not Yet Closed …
Egypt: From a Target for Overthrow to a Front of Attrition ..
Since the moment the trajectory
was broken in 2013, Egypt has never left the circle of targeting—no matter how
the headlines changed, alliances shifted, or tools evolved.
This was neither coincidence nor
fleeting political revenge, but the result of a fixed equation in regional and
international power calculations:
A state the size of Egypt, if it regains its vitality, can derail entire
projects across the region.
Egypt is not a case…
it is a benchmark:
On every map of fragmentation
drawn for the region, Egypt represented the dangerous exception. It is:
• not a rentier state that can be easily strangled
• nor a sectarian entity prone to fragmentation
• nor a fragile society devoid of national memory
Egypt is a central state that, if
it holds together, can:
• restore balance
• break the contagion wave
• prevent the generalization of the failed-state model
Hence, the constant objective was
always:
Either to neutralize it,
or to exhaust it,
or to keep it preoccupied with itself.
From Regime Overthrow
to State Exhaustion
In the early years after 2013,
the wager remained on:
• political overthrow
• international isolation
• direct pressure
But this wager failed. The state:
• did not fall
• was not isolated
• and did not break
Here began the more dangerous
shift: the transition from confrontation to attrition.
The Economy as a
Battlefield
Since the middle of the past
decade, the economy has ceased to be a technical file and has become a fully
political arena of confrontation.
The mechanism was clear:
• undermining confidence
• casting doubt on every project
• magnifying any crisis
• ignoring any improvement
The aim was not merely to halt
growth, but to:
create a permanent sense of uncertainty,
exhaust society,
confuse decision-making,
and inflame frustration.
Currency, Investment,
Reputation
In 2026, many of the campaigns
that targeted:
• the national currency
• credit ratings
• the investment environment
can be read as part of a broader
battle, not merely an economic debate.
A state that loses market
confidence:
• loses part of its sovereignty
• becomes more vulnerable to pressure
• and more fragile in the face of social crises
This is what made the economy one
of the pillars of Egyptian national security, not a file separate from it.
Why Did the
Exhaustion Plan Fail?
Because it collided with three
facts:
1. The state’s and society’s capacity for endurance
2. The diversification of international partnerships and
avoidance of dependence on a single party
3. The redefinition of national security to include the
economy, energy, and food
Put more plainly:
The state learned from the blows and did not repeat the same mistakes.
Egypt in the New Gulf
Equation
In 2026, Egypt is no longer
merely a political ally for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but:
a pillar of regional balance.
Any major destabilization in
Egypt:
• reverberates across the Red Sea
• affects energy security
• and reopens the doors to chaos
Thus, supporting the stability of
the Egyptian state has become part of Gulf security itself, not a political
courtesy.
The Risk That Still
Persists
Despite all of the above, this
does not mean the battle is over.
The danger today no longer lies
in:
• disorder
• sit-ins
• or noisy organization
but in:
social fatigue,
cost-of-living pressure,
and attempts to market failure as fate.
Herein lies the danger of the
current phase.
The Most Important
Lesson
Egypt was not targeted because it
erred,
but because it is capable of recovery.
Therefore, protecting the
Egyptian state in 2026 is no longer solely an internal responsibility, but a
fundamental element in the overall equation of Arab national security.
How Is the Battle
Managed in the Post-Chaos Era?
In 2026, the Arab region is no
longer living the moment of the great explosion it experienced more than a
decade ago, but it has not entered a phase of complete stability either.
We are in a more complex and
dangerous phase:
the post-chaos phase.
The regimes that fell, fell.
The organizations that were exposed, were exposed.
The real question is no longer:
who fell?
but rather: what has not yet been settled?
From the Clear Enemy
to the Hidden Adversary
In previous phases, the enemy
declared itself:
• organizations with clear names
• loud slogans
• direct mobilizing discourse
Today, the scene is entirely
different.
The adversary in 2026:
• raises no banner
• does not lead the ranks
• and does not seek power directly
Instead, it operates within:
• social fissures
• economic crises
• cultural contradictions
• and states of general frustration
It is an adversary without a
signboard.
The Battle of Slow
Attrition
The most dangerous aspect of the
current phase is that the conflict no longer aims to overthrow the state, but
to:
slow its movement,
confuse its decisions,
and drain its moral energy.
An exhausted state, even if it
remains standing,
loses its ability to initiate and influence.
Here,
• rumors
• digital campaigns
• selective reports
• economic pressures
turn into tools of soft war, no
less effective than weapons.
Why Did Chaos Fail…
and the State Succeed?
The most important lesson that
can be drawn up to 2026 is that:
chaos may surprise the state, but it cannot govern it.
The states that survived did not
survive because they were:
• militarily stronger alone
but because they:
• rebuilt their institutions
• developed the concept of national security
• understood that the battle is long-term
The states that collapsed fell
when:
• societal trust eroded
• institutions fragmented
• and a unifying vision disappeared
Awareness… the First
Line of Defense
In 2026, awareness is no longer a
cultural slogan,
but a security necessity.
A society that:
• understands what is being plotted around it
• distinguishes between legitimate criticism and deliberate demolition
• and grasps the limits of global and local crises
is less penetrable
and more capable of resilience.
Thus, the most dangerous battles
today are not on the battlefield, but in:
the mind,
the memory,
and the narrative.
The Modern State or a
Return to the Vicious Cycle
The Arab region today stands at a
clear crossroads:
• either consolidating the model of the modern state
• or recycling crises under new names
The modern state here does not
mean:
• a state of repression
• nor a state of slogans
but rather:
• a state of law
• a state of development
• a state of equal opportunities
• and a state of inclusive national identity
This is the real challenge.
The Gulf and Egypt:
The Equation of Stability
In 2026, the stability of Egypt
or the Gulf is no longer a local matter.
It is part of a broader equation:
• Red Sea security
• energy security
• regional balance
Therefore, any reading of Arab
national security today cannot ignore:
the interdependence of destinies,
the overlap of fronts,
and the unity of the threat.
What Must Be Guarded
Against?
The most dangerous thing that
could happen is:
• excessive complacency
• or the belief that the battle is over
Recent history has taught us
that:
• chaos does not announce its return
• organizations do not return under the same name
• and failed projects do not die easily—they merely change their skin.
Conclusion and
Opening
This series was not written to
condemn the past,
nor to frighten the future,
but to affirm one truth:
That a state which learned from
its crises,
invested in the awareness of its society,
and built its institutions on solid foundations,
is capable of survival… no matter how the form of danger changes.
As for the region,
it remains under examination.
An examination of memory,
an examination of awareness,
and an examination of the ability not to fall once again into the same trap.
Thus, it was necessary to
continue—but under a new, unifying title revolving around:
the strategic misunderstanding that prevented Arab states from rebuilding Arab
balances of power after 2011.
We continue tomorrow …
Paris: 5:00 p.m.,
Cairo time.
