At five in the afternoon, Cairo time (49).. Arab National Security (4)

 

Files Not Yet Closed…

Why did the Egyptian state survive? Lessons of a decade and a half:

 

When we look today, nearly fifteen years later, at the map of a region that ignited in 2011, the most important question is no longer: Why did states fall?

Rather: Why did Egypt survive?

 

It survived, despite everything.

Despite the mistakes, the cost, the confusion, the polarization, and the unprecedented pressures.

 

The answer, as experience reveals, is neither romantically heroic nor justificatory. It is complex, harsh, and deserves to be told with complete clarity.

 

The State… When It Is Deeper Than the Regime:

 

The first lesson, and perhaps the most important, is that the Egyptian state was not merely a governing regime.

 

It was:

 

Deeply rooted institutions

 

An extended historical memory

 

And an administrative and social structure not hastily created

 

Regimes fell in the region because the state itself was fragile,

or reduced to a single individual,

or mortgaged to a sect,

or built upon militia-based balances.

 

In Egypt, however, despite the exhaustion it suffered, the idea of the state remained present and resilient. This is to the credit of Mubarak’s regime and the president himself.

 

The Army… When It Refuses to Play the Wrong Role:

 

The Egyptian army did not immerse itself in politics.

It distanced itself from becoming a partisan actor.

Yet it was never absent from the scene,

and possessed what other armies lacked:

an awareness of the existential threat to the state.

 

It did not enter a civil war,

did not transform into a sectarian force,

and did not allow its structure to be dismantled.

 

When it intervened, it did not do so to rule,

but to prevent the state from collapsing into an endless vacuum.

 

This difference, seemingly simple on the surface,

proved decisive in its outcomes.

 

Society… The Memory of Fear from Chaos:

 

Egyptian society, despite its sharp divisions at that moment,

carried deep within it a long memory with chaos.

 

A memory of:

 

1919

 

1952

 

1967

 

And the reverberations of defeats and fractures

 

Society was not prepared to repeat the scenario of a collapsed state,

nor to pursue the unknown to its end.

 

Thus, when the road appeared blocked,

the balance gradually tilted toward stability,

even if costly.

 

The Opponents’ Mistakes… An Unintended Gift:

 

It cannot be ignored that the state’s opponents committed fatal mistakes.

 

Mistakes:

 

In managing power

 

In reading society

 

In dealing with state institutions

 

And in their conception of legitimacy

 

When the Muslim Brotherhood’s project of “empowerment” turned into exclusion, and when nationalism was replaced by organizational loyalty,

they lost sympathy and squandered the moment.

 

The Collapse of the Illusion of a “Single Model”:

 

One of the most important outcomes of this experience was the collapse of the idea that there exists a single model of change that can be replicated from one country to another.

 

What happened in Tunisia,

what unfolded in Libya,

what exploded in Syria,

and what survived in Egypt,

were all different trajectories,

because states differ,

societies differ,

and balances of power differ.

 

Here fell one of the most dangerous illusions of the past decade:

that democracy can be imposed as a ready-made template,

without context,

without institutions,

and without consensus.

 

From January 2011 to January 2026:

 

Between two Januaries, much has changed.

 

Illusions fell,

projects were exposed,

and heavy prices were paid.

 

But the most important truth that must be clearly stated:

Egypt was not an easy transit arena,

nor a free prize,

nor a state susceptible to complete fracture.

 

Therefore, the road to January 25 was not a single road,

but a network of intersecting paths,

some colliding with others,

and breaking at the boundaries of the Egyptian state.

 

A Final Word:

 

The purpose of this series, as we have said, is not to condemn anger,

nor to accuse protest of treason,

nor to absolve mistakes.

 

Rather, the goal is understanding.

 

To understand how pivotal moments are managed,

how revolutions are hijacked,

and how states sometimes survive collapse,

not through miracles,

but through delicate balances

and painful choices.

 

So what must not be repeated?

And where should we go?

 

After more than a decade and a half since January 25,

Egypt is no longer the Egypt that preceded that moment,

just as the world itself is no longer the same world.

 

Balances of power have shifted,

tools of intervention have changed,

and many illusions once presented as certainties have receded.

 

But the most dangerous outcome would be

for the experience, with all its weight, to pass

without transforming into sustainable institutional awareness.

 

The past years have proven that a state that survives once

may not necessarily survive the next time,

if the causes that placed it on the brink of collapse are not addressed.

 

They have also proven that stability unaccompanied by genuine reform

is not a long-term solution,

but a temporary truce with the future.

 

The deeper lesson offered by the January experience

is that protecting the state does not lie merely in preventing its fall,

but in its ability to renew itself from within,

open pathways for participation,

and drain the sources of anger before they erupt into explosion.

 

The experience also revealed that the most dangerous threat societies face

is the transformation of politics into a zero-sum struggle:

either a state without a voice,

or a voice without a state.

 

Between these two catastrophic choices,

the nation is lost.

 

The future—in Egypt and the region—

will not be built by slogans,

nor by force alone,

nor by the perpetual invocation of the specter of chaos.

Nor will it be built by betting on organized forces

that treat the state as spoils.

 

The future is built only when:

 

The state is strong through its justice, not through the fear of its citizens

 

Politics becomes a field of competition, not an existential battle

 

Difference becomes a right, not an accusation

 

And national memory transforms from a burden into a shield

 

The road to January 25 was possible

because it accumulated without review,

without candor,

and without serious reform.

 

As for the road beyond it,

it must not be left to coincidence,

nor to explosion,

nor to intervention from abroad.

 

This series of articles does not close the January file,

nor does it claim possession of the full truth,

but it presents before the reader the essence of an experience,

a price that was paid,

and an open question:

 

Will we learn before the road is reopened once again?

 

In the next installment, we will delve into a sensitive and complex file: the file of “Arab National Security” and its determinants, and what has transpired from January 2011 to January 2026.

 

Tomorrow, we continue.