Since yesterday, Saturday, March 7, the United States and Israel have opened the second week of the war against Iran with a new model—or round—of fighting that can be described as a “battle to break the will.”
The United States has moved from a phase of strikes aimed at weakening the regime to force it to modify its behavior, to a phase of strikes intended to break its will. For this purpose, the aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford has been deployed, with its significant combat capabilities designed to destroy adversaries’ capacities and paralyze their resolve.
This new battle aims to cripple Iran’s ability to continue the war by targeting several objectives.
First: Striking the Nuclear Program in Its Entirety
So far, the main nuclear facilities have not been destroyed, such as:
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Natanz
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Fordow
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Arak
The reason is that some of them are buried deep beneath mountains.
This time, the strike may include the use of:
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GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs
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B-2 bombers
These bombs weigh about 14 tons and are capable of penetrating dozens of meters of rock.
Second: Targeting the Senior Military Leadership of the Revolutionary Guard
Previous strikes focused on military sites belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but this time the battle will target:
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The leadership of the Revolutionary Guard
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The command of the missile forces
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Underground command and control centers
This is what is known as a “decapitation strike.”
Its objective is to paralyze leadership and command structures.
Third: Destroying the Iranian Fleet in the Gulf
Iran relies on several tools for maritime deterrence:
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Fast attack boats
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Coastal missiles
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Naval mines
The major battle this time aims to neutralize Iran at sea completely, by destroying:
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Naval bases of the Revolutionary Guard
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Coastal missile platforms
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Mine deployment sites
This would fully secure the Strait of Hormuz for shipping and deprive Iran of the advantage of using it as a lifeline in the war by pressuring Europe and the global economy to push for an end to the conflict.
Fourth: A Comprehensive Cyber Strike
In this battle, the United States may resort to a cyberattack targeting:
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The electricity grid
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Military communications
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Air defense systems
Similar to the operation that previously targeted Iran’s nuclear program.
Such a strike may be invisible, but devastating.
Fifth: Striking Iran’s Oil Economy
The Iranian economy fundamentally relies on oil.
Therefore, the strikes may include:
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Export ports
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Refining facilities
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Pipelines
This is already happening since yesterday and will place the economy under severe pressure, potentially prompting public protests within Iran.
Why Resort to “Battles of Breaking the Will” Now?
Three strategic reasons explain this shift:
1. Reinforcing deterrence
Washington seeks to confirm that any major Iranian response will be met with a much larger escalation.
2. Ending the war quickly
American military doctrine favors a large, short-term strike rather than a prolonged war that the U.S. domestic front would struggle to sustain.
3. Preventing the war from expanding
Because such escalation would dramatically increase the cost of continuing the war for Iran, potentially pushing the conflict toward the destruction of the state rather than merely the regime.
The Decisive Factor in Changing the Course of the War
In my view, only three strikes could fundamentally change the trajectory of the war:
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Destroying the main nuclear facilities
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Targeting the senior leadership of the Revolutionary Guard in a way that paralyzes the regime’s military and intelligence power
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Crippling Iran’s oil economy
I would almost say that any one of these strikes alone could completely alter the equation.
The Most Dangerous Scenario
However, an important point must be noted.
Such a large strike could also provoke an even larger Iranian response, including:
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Closing the Strait of Hormuz
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Striking U.S. bases in the Gulf region
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Expanding the war by opening new fronts through Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shiite armed groups in Iraq
For this reason, the calculations remain extremely complex.
Since the evening of Saturday, March 7, the war has entered a new phase characterized by attacks aimed at breaking Iran’s will and destroying its strategic capabilities, not merely punishing it.
In other words, the conflict has moved from the phase of managing the war to the phase of bringing the war to an end.
