Neglected conflict: Specter of terrorism emerges again from southern Thailand

On a cold autumn evening in southern Thailand, members of
the Thai Volunteer Defense Corps – a government-allied paramilitary
force –
stopped a group of villagers at a checkpoint in Yala province.
While the defense volunteers searched the villagers, unknown
assailants attacked the checkpoint, leaving 15 of the government-allied forces
dead and five others injured.
Following the attack, Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha
held a meeting with senior security officials to discuss the status of Thai
military forces in the region and to discuss the rebellion by armed ethnic Malay
Muslim groups.
Neglected crisis
The attack brought to the fore the armed conflict in southern
Thailand, which is one of the world's most neglected armed conflicts despite
its effects on international security.
According to the Soufan Group, a US-based international
security and intelligence consultancy firm, the armed conflict between Muslims
and Buddhists in the Malay Peninsula is one of the least covered and analyzed
in the world.
The conflict began in the southern Thai provinces of Yala,
Pattani and Narathiwat in the late 1950s. It flared up again in 2004 and intensified
for two years, while the year 2019 saw a decrease in militant activity until
they launched their latest attack on the Volunteer Defense Corps about two
weeks ago.
The conflict, which has killed 7,000 people over the past 15
years, involves a number of local armed Islamist groups, most notably the National
Revolutionary Front (BRN), an Islamist group seeking Pattani independence.
Repressive measures
Measures taken by the Thai government have fueled the
conflict in the south of the country, as the government has imposed a language
and laws contrary to the traditions of the Malay Muslims, who make up 80% of
the total population in the south of the country, constituting about two
million people.
In 2013, armed groups and the Thai military began rounds of
negotiations brokered by the Malaysian president, but the military halted the
talks shortly after they began.
The Thai government and military deny accusations by human
rights groups of abuses against Malay Muslims.
The military attempted to renegotiate with armed groups in
2014, but the negotiation efforts faltered, with violence erupting again in
southern Thailand.
Specter of terrorism emerges from southern Thailand
In recent years, armed groups in southern Thailand have
begun to adopt similar tactics to those of ISIS, including beheadings and
burning bodies.
The Soufan Group warned that the new wave of violence may be
more sophisticated, systematic and severe, expected to include ambushes,
assassinations of government officials and civilians alike, and the use of
improvised explosive devices, in addition to coordinated attacks such as the
attack two weeks ago against the Volunteer Defense Corps, so as to draw the
attention of the media and the government.
In the same context, the Brussels-based International Crisis
Group (ICG) and the Swiss-based World Economic Forum (WEF) warned of the
escalation of what they called the "jihadist tide" in Thailand.
WEF issued a report titled "Jihadism in Southern
Thailand: A Phantom Menace" that warned of a new dawn of terrorism emerging
from southern Thailand after the defeats faced by ISIS.
According to the report, al-Qaeda and ISIS have so far
failed to achieve any significant breakthrough for armed groups fighting the
Thai army, adding that both groups exploit conflicts around the world in which
Muslims are apart.
Terrorist ring
Southern Thailand is surrounded by a ring of terrorist
groups that have pledged allegiance to ISIS. They are active in the
Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia.
The terrorist organization succeeded in establishing branches
by working from the bottom up, as described in the report, taking advantage of
the groups that announced their allegiance to it.
According to the Soufan Group and the World Economic Forum,
there is still no evidence that any armed groups in southern Thailand have
joined al-Qaeda or ISIS due to their rejection of the latter two’s
Salafi-jihadist ideology.