Calm Points Amidst a Tumultuous Conflict
Monday 16/June/2025 - 06:17 PM
Abdel Rahim Ali
I have never been a fortune teller or a reader of coffee grounds, but I have always read between the lines, sought out the latest information, and confronted those closest to the issue at hand to obtain more details—those things that cannot be said in front of cameras. In Europe, the field of information is wide open, and many politicians, decision-makers, and researchers have much to say that cannot be expressed on television screens or in newspapers, but which they readily discuss in their private gatherings.
Regarding the conflict between Iran and Israel, the information was both abundant and precise—all of it speaking in one voice: the necessity of regime change in Iran as the only way to dismantle its nuclear program. Why? Because everyone knew that for Iran, possessing nuclear weapons is a matter of life and death—a creed and a principle they would not abandon, no matter the cost. Thus, negotiations with them, as concluded in the latest European report submitted to Trump a month before the strike, were exhausting, evasive, and ultimately futile. In fact, these talks merely gave the Iranian regime more time to reach the nuclear threshold.
These are the same conclusions reached by Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of U.S. National Intelligence (DNI), in her report prepared last March and delivered personally to Trump.
Curiously, the Israeli military intelligence soon received an updated report warning that Iran “had developed its ability to convert enriched uranium hexafluoride—produced in its centrifuge facilities—into enriched uranium metal.”
Leaving aside the complex terminology, it became clear to American, Israeli, and European decision-makers that Iran was on the verge of making a nuclear bomb, and that, As Israel claimed at the time, it was an attack on the State of Israel.
The struggle became one against time. In his first meeting as the first visitor to the White House last February after Trump’s victory, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured the U.S. president of his readiness to deliver a “crippling blow” to Iran within two months, as he put it. Trump, who had withdrawn from the P5+1 agreement in 2018, knew well that Iran would not comply with the international community nor cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Yet, he preferred to present himself as a negotiator seeking a diplomatic solution, and so he asked Netanyahu for more time.
Last April, the two men—Netanyahu and Trump—spoke again, and the latter informed Netanyahu of his final decision: to grant Iran sixty days, starting April 12 and ending June 12. Followers of my Facebook page can read what I wrote on April 12: I wrote verbatim, “If Iran makes the required concessions to America regarding dismantling its nuclear program—especially after losing its tools of influence in the region (Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Assad regime in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen, with its influence also curbed in Iraq)—it will receive the mantle of ‘America’s policeman in the region.’ This would, of course, diminish the roles of Egypt, Turkey, and certainly Israel, which is precisely what Israel seeks to prevent with a preemptive strike. The battle is over time—and time is running out.”
I was not a soothsayer when I published those words on the very day Netanyahu began counting the minutes, hours, and days, preparing for the strike by planting and activating his agents inside Iran, according to a plan that Trump reviewed and approved in its entirety. On Tuesday, June 10, three days before the strike, Netanyahu made a strange call to Trump. According to information available since April 1, the purpose was to seek authorization for the strike, as the deadline they had agreed upon would expire Thursday, June 12.
On that day, I wrote on my Facebook page, verbatim: “The matter is settled.” Some acquaintances contacted me to inquire further, and when I confided what I knew, some dismissed the likelihood of such an attack, especially with a new round of negotiations scheduled for Sunday, June 15. I told them clearly: We will never reach that date—the strike will come before it.
Again, I was not predicting the future, but was concerned with gathering and analyzing information and questioning all relevant parties here in Europe. My intuition proved correct.
From the very beginning, Netanyahu and Trump set the objective of the strike: to shake the ground beneath the regime’s feet as a prelude to its eventual overthrow. Why? Simply because it is impossible to destroy the entirety of Iran’s nuclear program with a conventional military strike. To end a nuclear program as vast as Iran’s, there are only two options:
First, to install a new regime aligned with the West and America, which would itself dismantle the nuclear program and guarantee its peaceful nature; or
Second, to strike Iran with a nuclear bomb—a move neither America, Israel, nor the West desires, as it would set a dangerous precedent and isolate both America and Israel from the world.
To those who ask why the program cannot be dismantled through negotiations, I say plainly: changing or modifying Iran’s nuclear doctrine is as difficult as expecting al-Qaeda and other armed Islamic groups to embrace democracy and civil statehood. For Iran’s rulers—the “mullahs”—the nuclear program is as sacrosanct as the dream of establishing an Islamic state and implementing Sharia law is for the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical Islamist groups. Both are deeply held beliefs that will not be surrendered.
Calm Points:
I was never a military expert to lecture you about the balance of power in this war, but I do understand its ultimate and intermediate objectives based on what I have seen and the information I dedicate myself to analyzing and studying.
First: The ongoing war’s goal is, as I have previously asserted, to change the regime in Iran, paving the way for a new government that will itself dismantle the Iranian nuclear program.
Second: The interim objectives, which I had already outlined on my Facebook page at the onset of this war, can be summarized as follows:
Paralyzing the regime’s ability to think and make decisions by targeting leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, as well as the security, military, and intelligence apparatus.
Neutralizing air defense systems by hitting missile storage sites, their factories, and deployment areas, leaving Tehran’s skies unprotected.
Striking nuclear and oil facilities.
All these goals have so far been achieved, except for the ultimate aim of dismantling the regime by inciting the Iranian people to revolt from within. No researcher or political analyst can predict the timing of this, despite the constant stream of information from inside Iran about the collapse of the economy, deteriorating medical services, and conflicting reports about Israeli cells within Iran. All this could eventually (God forbid) lead to a breakdown of internal order, achieving what America, Israel, and the West desire.
Israel:
To those who are elated at the sight of ballistic missiles striking buildings in Tel Aviv, I say: now is not the time for emotions. We all condemn the inhuman massacres carried out by the occupation in Gaza and its rampage throughout the region. America and the West will not stand idly by as their protégé Israel is attacked. Let me refer you to what President Sadat, may he rest in peace, said hours after the glorious October War: a wise leader realizes that he is not fighting Israel alone, but the United States of America with all its military might, which then—as now—placed its entire arsenal at Israel’s disposal, along with billions of dollars for reconstruction and repairing infrastructure damaged by Iranian missiles.
Biting Fingers:
The policy of “biting fingers” that Iran is pursuing is of no use in this battle, because the opponent has many fingers—not just Israeli, but also Western and American. We must be alert to what may happen in the next phase of the war, which could last more than a month from now, especially if America enters the conflict with all its might. At that point, the region will face a true catastrophe.
What Next?
I have no predictions about the future, but all available information suggests that America and Israel will persist on their path to regime change in Iran—even if that means America’s direct military involvement alongside Israel, as the only way to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat once and for all.
And the more pressing question is: Will America and Israel’s ambitions stop at defeating Iran and dismantling its nuclear arsenal? I say clearly: No, their ambitions will not end there. This imposes on us, in Egypt, many responsibilities—perhaps it will soon be time to address them in another article.
