Issued by CEMO Center - Paris
ad a b
ad ad ad
Abdelrahim Ali
Abdelrahim Ali

Does Macron’s speech leads to chaos

Tuesday 11/December/2018 - 02:49 PM

Emmanuel Macron is now faced with the greatest challenge to his presidency, During a TV address on Monday (December 10th) to the French people; Macron has been trying to catch up.

The speech seemed to be very conscious of the depth of the crisis and its consequences, precisely defining its size and its interactions. It is not a crisis of tax or economic one; it is a social and political rift that deepened throughout a 40-year rule era.

At first glance, Macron appeared, despite the apparent weakness and unquenchable tension, aware of the crisis and its developments.

On Monday night, he went before his people in an attempt to save his administration. Though demanding “a profound reform of the state” his speech did not lay out the sweeping reforms that would salvage his teetering grip on the nation. I was surprised when he began to talk about the steps of the solution, those steps summarized in some economic measures.

He has sought to calm the angry people due to the economic crisis in France, in addition to a desperate attempt to take a breath via his call for an in-depth dialogue starts from the bottom and to the top to determine all the problems and its solution, in an attempt to absorb anger and calm the street.

Emmanuel Macron has been trying to catch up. He assumed the protests would die out. When he realized they wouldn’t, he promised to suspend, and then to scrap, the fuel tax that had started the movement focus had moved from the tax to greater social and economic demands. He gave in too late each time, adapting his strategy only when it became painfully obvious that the previous one had failed.

If those decisions might have taken on the morning of November 18, a day after the protests began on November 17 would have come well. But after the snowball rolled up and reached this size, which blocked all possible outlets to bring economic solutions to the crisis, Macron had to jump on all these solutions, at a political initiative surprised by all the political blocs entrenched in the street and both jumped on them all avoid the violent clash with them, France and the French are a predictable mess that the events of the next Saturday, December 15, may create.

I mentioned in the previous article that Macaron to have only four main options:

The first option is to resort to a public referendum on his policies to replicate General De Gaulle's experience in the face of student protests in 1968, in which case the loss is predicted by 80%. That is the percentage that supported the demands of yellow jackets.

The second option is the dissolution of the National Assembly in preparation for legislative elections leading to the confirmed victory of one of the opposition parties or an alliance between two main parties, the National Rally Party, led by Marine Le Pan, and La France Insoumise led by Jean-Luc Melenchon. The formation of a co-existence government, as the experiences of Presidents Francois Mitterrand in 1986 with Prime Minister Jacques Chirac and in 1993 with Prime Minister Eduard Baldur and President Jacques Chirac in 1997 with Prime Minister Jospin.

The third option is the dissolution of the government of Adward Philip and forms a government of national unity headed by a strong member of the left or right as it was possible. There is news about the government of Francois Bayrou (center-right) or of Jacques-Yves Loudrian (center-left), in addition to appointed ministers from various currents. If this option success it will allow Macron be in touch with his grassroots base, and will maintain his political influence before the next presidential election.

The fourth option: the President Macron is maneuvering and trying to gain time through his speech, in which he tries to restore the situation to the point of zero, but he will risk watching the burning of France next Saturday (December 15). 

After this lean speech, I believe that President Macron will not have the opportunity to start implementing those decisions he took yesterday and his government will not be able to issue one of them, before the storming of painful events on Saturday the seventh December 10th.

This time, there will be protests not only for yellow jackets, but also for political and public movements, on the ground and through parliament, by traditional parties and political blocs and the far-right and far-left blocs that have entered the crisis line since last week.

Macron has unfortunately put himself in the lion’s mouth and has reduced the movement’s scope and reduced his options. There is no choice after Saturday’s events.

The only choice is the calling for a referendum on policies that lose at least 80% to come out of French political life.

The only lifeline that may save Macron is to make a decision by Saturday to dissolve the parliament, allowing the angry people and opposing political forces to re-elect a parliament and a government that will run the country for the rest of his term. Macron retains some power as an elected president. The new government and its president, whether it is a party or a coalition running the country in accordance with a new vision that may achieve what the French citizen wants.

Macron’s delay in taking the right decision at the right time could expose France to anarchy.

[email protected]