Abdel Rahim Ali: Iran Strategic Bets Collapse in Ongoing War
Sunday 03/May/2026 - 02:09 PM
Ahmed Seif El-din
Abdel Rahim Ali said that Iran strategic bets in the current regional conflict have largely failed, arguing that Tehran miscalculated multiple pressure tools before and during the war. His analysis highlights how these failed assumptions reshaped Middle East tensions and regional security dynamics.
Ali argued that Iran relied on several Iran strategic bets, including pressuring Gulf states through missile strikes and targeting Israeli infrastructure to force a political shift. He noted that Tehran expected Gulf governments to pressure Washington to halt the war, but “this did not happen even after 45 days.”
He added that Iran also believed strikes deep inside Israel would weaken internal cohesion. However, Ali explained that opposition within Israel came mainly from secular groups and dual nationals, not from core political constituencies. “Public support in Israel for continuing the war has instead increased,” he said.
According to Ali, these miscalculations reflect flawed political strategy and intelligence assessments. He noted that Gulf states have aligned more closely with efforts to counter Iran’s missile capabilities, citing concerns over national security and economic stability.
Ali also pointed to the Lebanese front as another failed calculation. He said Iran-backed escalation through Hezbollah resulted in Israeli territorial gains in southern Lebanon and renewed international calls to disarm the group, marking a shift in regional security discourse.
The analysis comes amid escalating Middle East tensions following prolonged confrontation involving Iran, Israel, and regional actors. The conflict has drawn attention to Iran’s broader geopolitical strategy, including its reliance on proxy networks and deterrence tools.
Ali suggested that the failure of Iran strategic bets has weakened Tehran’s negotiating position and reduced international sympathy. He emphasized that misjudging regional reactions—particularly in the Gulf—has had lasting consequences for Iran’s influence.
The outcome, he argued, signals a broader shift in geopolitical analysis of Iran’s role, with increased emphasis on containment rather than accommodation.
