Issued by CEMO Center - Paris
ad a b
ad ad ad
Abdelrahim Ali
Abdelrahim Ali

Intelligence conflict in the Middle East region

Tuesday 16/October/2018 - 03:22 PM

Egyptians and Arabs marked the 45th anniversary of the October 6 victory, which stands out as a major turning point, shaping the region's fate. This war has opened the door for an intelligence conflict for the region's fate. Many schemes were laid out to redraw the region's chart, totally different from the situation created by the Sykes–Picot Agreement. The common factor in of these schemes was the security of Israel to be intact and prevent any possible defeat of Israel by Arabs in the future.

The beginning: Bernard Lewis Plan

At a time of fuelling Iraq-Iran war, the Bernard Lewis Plan was laid out in 1980. US National Security Adviser Brzezinski stated that the US should stir a second Arab Gulf war on the sidelines of the first Gulf war, between Iraq and Iran, in a bid to the reset the borders laid out by Sykes-Picot to lay the foundation of different rules for the political game in the region.  

Lewis, a Jew of British origin, was later commissioned by the Pentagon and started to lay out his plan to dissolve the constitutional unity of the Arab and Islamic countries in 1981.

The plan included Iraq, Syria and Lebanonو Egypt, Sudan, Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Gulf States and North African countries.

The plan was aimed at dismembering Arab and Islamic countries into sectarian, religious and racial cantons and small states. He attached a number of the region's maps, inspired by the statements of US National Security Adviser Brzezinski.

Lewis established his plan on the hypothesis that Arabs and Muslims are anarchists, corrupt and cannot be civilized, and they would target the world by a series of terrorist attacks if they are left on their own. Therefore, the optimal solution is to reoccupy and colonize their land once again by destroying their cultural and social norms, drawing on the French and British experience in the region.

Lewis stressed the need to divide the Arab and Islamic countries into tribal and sectarian units, using democracy training as pretext.

Therefore, pressure should be tightened on these countries, taking advantage of sectarian and tribal feuds prior to the US and European invasion and the destruction of Arab and Islamic civilizations. He described the Zionist state as the frontline of the Western civilization in the face of Islamic grudge.

Iran in its present state was the pillar of the plan to well establish sectarianism as well as expansionary ambitions, which have driven the Persian state since it was launched until now. It has grudged all about Sunni Islam. Therefore, the imperialist western powers backed the opposition during the rule of Shah to install mullah regime.

The plan takes advantage of fuelling Shiite-Sunni dispute to push the Western scheme ahead.

That explains why Lewis decried a peaceful solution of the Arab-Zionist conflict and Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon. He described the withdrawal as a hasty and unjustified act as the Zionist state is the frontline of the Western civilization.

And when the US called in 2007 to the Annapolis peace conference, Lewis wrote in the Wall Street Journal: "We should look at this conference and its results only as a temporary tactic, aimed at strengthening the alliance against the Iranian threat, facilitating the dismantling of Arab and Islamic countries, and pushing Turks, Kurds, Arabs, Palestinians and Iranians to fight each other, as America did with the American Indians before".

US Congress

In 1983, the US Congress unanimously approved the Bernard Lewis Plan and classified as part of the US foreign policy in the coming years, especially after the end of the Cold War and the dissolving of the Eastern bloc in early 1990s.

The plan divided the region into 19 states, comprising minorities and other sects antagonizing one another. Therefore, each Arab and Islamic country is at risk today of ethnic and social disintegration to the degree of civil war as in some countries at present.

The Kivunim documents, titled "A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties", published in Hebrew by Yoram Beck revealed that in February 1982.

These documents contained all the US-Zionist plans to divide the Arab world into small states as follows:

North African countries

According to the plan, Libya, Algeria and Morocco will be divided into a Berber state (neighboring Nubia state in Egypt and Sudan) and Polisario state, in addition the remainder of Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. Egypt will be divided into four states: Nubia, a Christian state in the west, an Islamic state in the middle and a pro-Zionist state comprising Sinai and the Nile.  

Arab Peninsula & the Gulf

The plan aims at the abolishment of all Arab Gulf countries and the erasing of their constitutional entities, establishing only 3 states; Shiite Al-Ahsa, comprising Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and parts OF Saudi Arabia, Sunni state in Najd, comprising parts of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and Sunni Hejaz state, comprising parts of Saudi Arabia and Yemen.


The plan aims at dividing Iraq into a Shiite state around Basra, a Sunni state around Baghdad and a Kurdish state in the north and northeastern Iraq around Mosul. The Kurdish state will comprise territories from Iraq, Syria, Iran, Turkey and the former Soviet Union.


The plan aims at dividing Syrian into a Shiite Alawite state on the Mediterranean coast, a two Sunni states around Aleppo and Damascus, Druze state in southern Syria, Lebanon and east Jordan. They managed to do that by critically engaging the Syrian army in fighting ISIS and Al-Nusra Front. However, the Russian support to Bashar al-Assad prevented undermined that scheme thanks to Moscow's full awareness of the plot and threats to the whole region.


The plans aims at dividing Lebanon into a Sunni state in the north around Tripoli, a Maronite state around Jounieh, an Alawite state in Beqaa Valley, its capital Baalbek (under the Syrian sovereignty), a state around Beirut under international sovereignty, a Palestinian canton from Sidon to Litani River, a canton for Kataeb comprising Shiites and Christians, a Druze state in parts of Syria, Lebanon and Palestine and a Christian canton under Israeli sovereignty.


The plan aims at the liquidation the whole state and creating an entity for the Palestinians.


The plan aims at creating Greater Israel at the expense of eradicating Palestine and its people.

Iran, Pakistan & Afghanistan

The plan aims at dividing the trio into 10 weak states: Kurdistan, Azerbaijan and Turkistan, Arabstan, Iranstan, Blonestan, Bkhunistan, Afghanistan, the remnant parts of Pakistan and Kashmir.  


The plan aims at taking territories from Turkey to create a Kurdish state in Turkey and Iraq.

 Creative chaos

In September 2002, former US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said the US would liberalize the Islamic world and spread democracy and change the Arab regimes.

On August 7, 2003, Rice wrote in an article published in the Washington Post that soon after the conclusion of World War II, America committed itself to the long-term transformation of Europe. And the people of Europe committed to the vision of democracy and prosperity.

"Today America and our friends and allies must commit ourselves to a long-term transformation in another part of the world: the Middle East," she wrote.

Later, Rice described aggression on Lebanon as "the birth pangs of a new Middle East". She elaborated to label "a new Middle East" would fix all of the region's chronic turmoil.

However, that wouldn't be easy as she put it, noting it will take time. In June 2004, the Bush administration called on Arab and South Asian governments to adopt major political reforms, especially regarding human rights and the status of women, in addition to an economic overhaul.  

In April 2005, Rice answered a question on the chaos resulting from the US intervention in the Middle East, saying that the situation is not stable and the democratic transition might to lead to chaos in the beginning, but will lead to a better situation.

Thomas Barnett, a former Pentagon defense analyst, believes the creative chaos would take place via a massive collapse or regional disintegration. Barnett considers direct external intervention as a stimulus for creative chaos. An external force should open the way for change, and the US is the only country that can make that, according to him. The strategy is aimed at shrinking the hole, not just containing it.

US national security strategist Gary Hart hinted the same idea in his book "The Fourth Power". Hart wrote that the democracy seeker should take into account the revolutionary aspect of this time. The nation/state concept should dominate the state/nation theme.

The US in Iraq: Strategy and instruments

The western strategy was carried out in 2 phases.

The first phase, according to the creative chaos concept, the US killed two birds with one stone in Iraq as it destroyed a powerful army and stirred sectarian conflict between Sunnis and Shiites, casting a shadow on the whole region.

In Sudan, the West intervened to divide it into two states. The southern state is in disagreement with Arabs and Muslims in the north.

In Libya, NATO destroyed another Arab army, and the western powers fuelled conflict among warring parties there.

The second phase took place with the Western funding of revolutionary movements, comprising internet activists, NGOs and human rights activists who contributed to the breeding of strife in the Arab world.

After the collapse of Arab regimes, Western powers came to foment turmoil. This phase included: Demonstrations, the provocation security personnel by intruders or members of the security authority itself, the sudden collapse of the security authority, the dominance of chaos, attacks carried out by outlaws across the country, crushing the security authority, urging nonstop demonstrations, playing with the minds and hearts of demonstrators, engaging the army by secondary issues to keep it away from its core mission, which is to defend the nation against external threats, and to try to destabilize order and the home front, and hush any attempts to calm down.

Therefore, the West and the US switched from the "hard power" to "soft power", which will make their schemes happen without any loss of lives and money. To this end, they aroused the Arab street through its agents and trainees on how to influence the public, holding training courses for volunteers via NGOs, such as Gene Sharp's Einstein Institution, which trained some young people on nonviolence change through the social media sponsored by Qatar.

Most importantly, what director Ruaridh Arrow said in an article published by an Arab newspaper, , about the role of American expert, Gene Sharp, in the peaceful uprisings, citing his writings and ideas, especially his book "From Dictatorship to Democracy". That book played an influential and significant role in instigating revolutions worldwide from Serbia, Ukraine and Thailand to Indonesia.  

These movements are the front of the US intelligence, providing media support for these movements through fake media and paid eyewitnesses.

Consequently, the creative chaos continued as an instrument and not an objective.

When this creative chaos is foiled politically, as happened in Egypt, where the army saved the nation, it draws on other instruments and ways, including direct and indirect military actions, economic and political pressures, the media and NGOs.

Why the Islamists?

A US intelligence report was leaked more than 30 years ago, during the climax of the Afghan-Russian war, that the US deems Islamists as a "possible alternative" to governments in the Arab region.

After 10 years of the birth of creative chaos concept, Arabs now find themselves hit by intellectual, cultural and political crises, partially created by the Arab Spring as Arabs call it, and the new Middle East as the West sees it.

However, a crucial question is raised: How did the West handle this colonial idea, taking advantage of political stagnation and economic conditions, which it had mainly created?

In fact, the political situation in the Arab world, compared to the West, is an incentive for adventurous peoples under any theory for change. With the absence of cultural awareness in the Arab world, any Western-like democratic form may deceive Arabs.

Therefore, this lack of political awareness has driven the West to choose the Muslim Brotherhood to implement the theory of the new Middle East, for a number of reasons, i.e. the Brotherhood's hunger to rule makes the organization ready to accept all political concessions.

That actually happened 10 years ago when former Brotherhood Supreme Guide Mahdi Akef, told the Associated Press that the organization would be well observe the peace agreement with Israel if it assumes power.

The Brotherhood… an ideal choice

The Brotherhood was an ideal option for ushering in the creative chaos by the West. The intellectual weakness fostered by Arab politics, that the religiousness of ignorant peoples is the only for dominance.  This is a strategic mistake which is hard to overcome.

The Brotherhood is a network of an international organization, introducing itself as a group of an Islamic inclination. That has prepared it to become an appropriate instrument to implement that plan due to its historic cooperation with the British and its willingness to make any concessions.

The Brotherhood is a group that highly relies on of circumvention, flexibility and transformation. Its hierarchy is rather similar to that of clandestine Masonic associations, which have established strong links to the British and US intelligence agencies since 1928.

Stephen Dorell said in his book "MI 6: Inside the Hidden World The secret intelligence of Her Majesty" that the British intelligence had close links to the Brotherhood away in the past since the 1920s and 1930s.

After World War II, it MI6 was replaced by the CIA. However, the Brotherhood's ties with the British remained the same. The Brotherhood's ties with the CIA and MI6 strengthened after former President Gamal Abdel Nasser assumed power in 1954.

The US used Islamists and the Brotherhood in fighting the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s. They even fought Russia in Chechnya and Daghstan.

In 2011, the Brotherhood played a key role in taking away the revolution in Egypt and toppling Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and worsening the Syrian crisis.

Arab Spring

The US has reached the climax of its dream with the Arab Spring in 2011 as planned by Washington, which wanted the Brotherhood to ride the revolution.

Global Research center revealed that the US and the Brotherhood approved the division plan in 2007 and that the Obama administration has secretly backed the Brotherhood and other groups in the Middle East since 2010. 

The center revealed an essential document titled "Middle East Partnership Initiative: An Overview".  The document pinpointed to a developed structure of US State Department programs to help civil society organizations to tune the local policies of countries to be in line with the US policy and to serve and the US national security objectives.

The document also exposed that the Obama administration had launched a preemptive campaign to topple regimes all over the Middle East and North Africa.

The document revealed that the initiative targeted NGOs in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain. A year after it extended to Libya and Syria.

The US is still playing in the region and reshuffling its cards to continue the plan.

US internal disagreement

After the June 30 revolution, there was an acute disagreement between the US Congress and the intelligence service and the White House on the way to deal with Cairo.

The question was: Should we go ahead with the plan to divide Egypt? The plan that started right after the October 1973 war.

The creative chaos concept and the war of societies have injected fresh blood into the plan. The US disagreement was about if the US should accept the new situation created by the June 30 revolution, especially after the election of leader Abdel Fattah El Sisi as president of Egypt to become a great statesman in the region?

US intelligence reports described El Sisi as a man who might be like former president Gamal Abdel Nasser, but more realistic. The reports said El Sisi had studied in the US. Therefore, he would be a leader to deal with to keep the region integrated. The reported pointed out that the US wouldn't need any wars in the region, especially after the US stepped out like a wounded lion from Afghanistan and Iraq.

The US hesitated. However, Israel took action. Officials of top 10 US banks - all Jews - met with US President Barack Obama carrying a message from the Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu, requesting to go ahead with the plot as planned.

They told him they did not want to waste more than 41 years of hard work and effort.

New York Times revealed the plan

In December 2013, the New York Times newspaper republished the region's map with differences taking into account new political developments:


The Kurds of the North will join Syrian Kurds. The south will turn into a state for Shiites. Certainly, violence and bloodshed will be inevitable.


The map shows that the poor Arab country could split into two states after a possible referendum on independence. The whole of Yemen, or parts of it, may be under Saudi Arabian sovereignty.

Direct access to the Arabian Sea will reduce dependence on the Arabian Gulf, and weaken Iran's potentials to shut down the Straits of Hormuz.


The sectarian strife may divide the country into at least three states: an Alawite state, Syria's Kurdistan (which may join Iraq's Kurdistan), and the Sunni central territories, which may join Sunni regions in Iraq to form Sunnistan.


The situation is rather clear in Libya. The North Arab country may be divided into three states: Tripoli, Barqa and Fezzan (in the southwest) due to strong tribal and regional strife.

Saudi Arabia


Saudi Arabia will face possible internal splits in the long run. However, the newspaper said the situation is under control there.  However, these splits may emerge with the accession of the new generation to power. The new generation has already started to take the helm.

Saudi Arabia will face tribal disagreements, Sunni-Shiite strife and economic challenges

Saudi Arabia can be divided into five territories, which were dominant prior to the establishment of the modern state.

Egypt not yet

Egypt remained undivided in the map as the West deals with Egypt as the great award. The scheme for Egypt is very clear, dividing the country into an Islamic state in Sinai and the Nile Delta, a Christian state in Upper Egypt, and a Nubian state.

The scheme is carried out by 6 parties, i.e. the US (the sponsor), Israel, which will be a key country in the region, controlling weak and demilitarized fragmented states, the EU with its great British and German intelligence agencies, Turkey, Qatar, and the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood, which seeks to establish a state. Each party has a role to play in this plot to be discussed later.


The intelligence agencies of great powers realized that the Egyptian intelligence agency knows about the whole plan after the June 30 revolution. Therefore, these intelligence agencies leaked a serious report in August 2013 saying that the plan was on track.

Representatives of 5 intelligence agencies (the CIA, Mossad, the British intelligence, the French Defense Ministry and the NATO Operations Room) met on August 16-18, 2013 at the US base in Darmstadt, Germany.

The participants in that meeting thought a stable regime in Egypt, which is not pro-West will pose a threat to Islamic regime in Turkey.  Therefore, the Iraqi and Syrian examples should be emulated in Egypt through "death squads" to incur political and economic turmoil.


They thought the death toll in Egypt should reach 12,000 per month in Sinai and the Nile Delta, compared to 6,000 per month in Syria and Iraq to remove any impacts of the Egyptian revolution on the region.

 Do you now realize the magnitude of challenges faced by the sons, whose fathers restored dignity to all Egyptians on October 6?

Many people rejected that report, citing that is rather difficult to leak such top classified document. However, the report was leaked as the major intelligence agencies wanted to send a message to Cairo that the plan is on track.

The scheme is on

All of the obstacles that have faced the Egyptian regimes since the October 6 victory in 1973 were well-planned, but we cannot exonerate them from responsibility.  For instance, the Hosni Mubarak regime was fully aware of these plots. However, in the wake of the pressure exerted by the new generation, Mubarak dismissed those warnings as he thought the US wouldn't give up his regime and risk their interests in the region.

Egypt has gone through – and is still -- a greater threat more serious than the challenges that followed the October 6 victory, to end its unity, diminishing its role and weakening its army. It all started with Lewis' plans in 1981.

However, these plans have not ended with Condoleezza Rice's concept of creative chaos.  And the community war concept aimed at the penetrating of civil society organizations.  The plot was exposed following the January 25 revolution.

The Egyptians corrected the course of [January 25 revolution] by the June 30 revolution. However, the plan is still there and the schemers still dream of finding a means to achieve their objective.