US withdrawal from Afghanistan: Regional fears of turmoil in the region (Part 4)

A state of anxiety dominates the world after US President Joe Biden’s decision to completely withdraw from Afghanistan, as the decision threatens to provoke many crises and unrest, threatening the interests of neighboring countries, especially since China, India, Iran and Russia have interests in Afghanistan and do not want to see a Taliban emirate, as Iran and Russia have long-standing relations with the Hazaras, Tajiks and Uzbeks who oppose the Taliban.
The greatest fear is that Afghanistan's intervention in
sectarian conflict will open up an internal sectarian conflict that eliminates
the remaining political, economic and social fragility in the country that has
been achieved during the past two decades.
Certainly, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is not related
to Afghanistan alone, which is expected to return once again to Taliban rule,
as its influence extends to the US interior and to the list of US allies and
opponents in the Near and Middle East.
The Middle East Institute in Washington confirmed that
Biden’s decision is paving the stage for a civil war that destabilizes the
region, leads to more waves of extremism, and will harm US interests because US
opponents such as Russia, China and Iran have become able to replace the US
role.
Pakistan is the first to suffer from the US decision, as the
expansion of the Taliban in Afghanistan endangers the fragile border provinces
of Pakistan, enhances the flow of refugees, and destroys any prospects for
foreign investment.
Pakistan has also been concerned about the growing influence
of its rival India in Afghanistan since the intervention of the United States.
Experts say that the US-Taliban agreement in 2020 would not
have been possible without the support of Pakistan, which has great influence
over the Taliban movement and played a pivotal role in bringing the insurgents
to the negotiating table.
Pakistan wants the Taliban to have a major role in ruling Afghanistan
in the future, as this would better serve its interests, but it does not
guarantee peace in the country.
It is also expected that Biden’s decision will lead to
increased anxiety in India, given the impact of the regional war by proxy, the
civil war in Afghanistan, and the ungoverned space, which will be available
again for international and anti-India terrorist groups. Nevertheless, New
Delhi refuses to adjust its policies to the reality of the Taliban returning to
the center of power in Kabul, because it views the Taliban as a strategic asset
for the Pakistani intelligence establishment.
As for Iran, it seems concerned about the escalation of
violence in Afghanistan, especially as it shares 578 miles of border with it.
Tehran links this decision to the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq in 2011,
which led to the emergence of ISIS, where the Iraqi security forces were
unprepared and unable to take responsibility for the country's security.
At the same time, the countries of the Middle East fear that
Iran will take advantage of the vacuum that Afghanistan will witness after the
US withdrawal and try to extend its influence over the region, making Kabul the
fifth regional capital under Tehran’s influence. As it did in Iraq, Iran would
use Shiites to extend its influence over the country, and in the Afghan model,
it could use Afghan fighters, especially the Fatemiyoun and Zainebiyoun
militias, to fight alongside it in Syria.
It is important to bear in mind that Iran has had a
subversive role in Afghanistan, with the aim of extending its influence and
searching for a foothold in Kabul to serve its interests and its expansionist
agenda regionally through the Revolutionary Guard’s regional militias, which
have been involved in terrorist attacks, including assassinations of prominent
political figures.