US withdrawal from Afghanistan: Kiss of life for birds of darkness

US President John Biden’s decision to withdraw from
Afghanistan is a kiss of life for al-Qaeda and the Taliban movement, which
dreams of returning to power again, heralding a civil war that leads to
destabilization and extremism in the region.
The US administration did not notice the expansion of
terrorist elements after the end of the Soviet invasion in 1989, when
Washington imagined that its mission ended with expelling the Russians until
the events of September 11, 2001, after which former President George W. Bush
declared the war on terror.
Once the unconditional withdrawal of US forces was
announced, terrorist attacks have increased, although the Taliban denies
responsibility. At the same time, the Talian refuses to agree to a ceasefire
that includes all of the country, which raises doubts about its intentions,
especially as it refused to attend the Istanbul conference that was scheduled
to be held April 24, which prompted Turkey to postpone it, threatening to enter
the country into a dark tunnel.
The withdrawal of US forces and Washington's failure to
finance the Afghan army financially and militarily puts the country at the
mercy of the militias, especially as it depends entirely on American support.
An auditor of the Afghan scene finds that the country will
become a hotbed of terrorism after the US withdrawal. The Taliban will not be
the only beneficiary or the only threat to the Afghan state, as there are
militias and other groups threatening it, such as ISIS.
Afghan MP Rehana Azad previously warned of the danger of
these groups, saying, “The Taliban movement is now stronger than before, and
ISIS and other terrorist groups have found a foothold, so a hasty and
irresponsible withdrawal will have serious consequences not for Afghanistan,
but for the whole region and the world.”
US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said after the
briefing, “There are no good options in Afghanistan... The moment the Taliban
flag flies over a part of Afghanistan, a shot of steroids will be sent to every
jihadist in the world that the Taliban are defeating the West, that they have
beaten us.”
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan admitted that the
ability to gather American intelligence in Afghanistan will diminish when
forces withdraw from the country, but he said that there will be sufficient
capacity to know if al-Qaeda is re-emerging before it is too late, especially
since the United States will not have a military presence in Afghanistan except
to protect the embassy.
Lisa Curtis, who served as the most prominent White House
official in Afghanistan and Pakistan during the administration of former US
President Donald Trump, said that the reason why al-Qaeda is so weak now is that
America was exerting pressure on it, and without the American presence then the
terrorists would be free to do what they wanted.
One of the biggest challenges that will emerge with the
withdrawal of US forces is how to effectively monitor extremist groups in
Afghanistan and perhaps strike them, as the country is landlocked and far from
any major US base. American planes can launch flights from the air base in
Qatar, which is the main air axis of the United States in the Middle East, but
Qatar's remoteness from Afghanistan, plus the need to fly over Iran, makes it
an expensive option.
These concerns confirm the Taliban’s anger over the US
retreat from its pledge to withdraw on May 1 and postponing it to September.
Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem said in a tweet after the US withdrawal was
announced that “the Islamic Emirate will not participate in any conference to
make decisions regarding Afghanistan as long as foreign forces do not
completely withdraw from the country,” referring to the conference that was
scheduled to be held in Istanbul, which was an essential part of the Biden
administration’s plan regarding Afghanistan, while the United Nations entered
the crisis line with the escalation of efforts to launch peace talks and reach
an agreement between the regional powers and their proxies in the country.
An intelligence report warned the Biden administration that
Afghanistan could fall largely under Taliban control within two or three years
after the withdrawal of international forces if US forces leave before a
power-sharing settlement is reached between the Taliban and the Afghan
government, opening the door for al-Qaeda to rebuild its strength in the
country.
The report warned of the outbreak of a civil war in
Afghanistan after the US withdrawal in the event that no agreement is reached
between the two parties.