Somalia’s Election Impasse: History Repeating Itself

Somalia has found itself in a situation that is very familiar – an election impasse. Despite hopes of a smooth transition of power and a new election model being implemented, multiple challenges faced the election, which was scheduled for 8 February 2021. However, these challenges are not new, and one has to wonder how Somalia has found itself in this situation again. Regardless of the outcome of the election impasse, the impacts thereof will have long lasting effects on Somalia’s democratic hopes.
Somalia’s
presidential elections were scheduled to take place 8 February 2021, allowing
for the nomination of a new president before the current president’s term ends.
However, the vote never took place after a disagreement among the country’s
leaders on how to hold the election. President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, also
known as Farmaajo, ended his term on 8th February 2021 with no elected successor,
leaving a power vacuum. The situation is a familiar one, with the previous two
presidents of Somalia having stayed in office beyond their constitutional
terms. But how did Somalia end up here again and what does it mean for their
fragile democracy?
Discussions
surrounding the elections started in 2020, ahead of the original date in
November 2020. In June 2020, the electoral commission of Somalia made the
decision to delay the vote over “significant technical and security challenges”.
The country has been plagued by violence from al-Shabab, who has for years
carried out terrorist attacks across Somalia. The group is also known to
increase activity around election periods. During talks on 7 February 2021, a
roadside blast was arranged by the group near the venue where leaders were
meeting to discuss the election. At least a dozen intelligence officers were
killed in the attack. The group thrives off political instability and a
situation where a president’s term has ended without a successor is a prime
environment for the group.
The
precarious electoral system of the federal state also added to these
challenges. Clan elders vote for a 51-member electoral college – this college
then votes for 275 members for the House of People. 54 members are voted into
the upper house, according to the representation of the federal state. The two
houses then vote for the president from a list of candidates vying for the job.
Citizens do not have a direct vote and have not since 1969. The perplexing
system was created in response to the decades of civil war that plagued the
country, resulting in the federal state system. It was predicted that once the
transitional government was internationally recognized in 2012 that the
traditional system would end, however, it has remained the rule of law.
These
issues are also accompanied by infighting between the federal states. Two of
the federal member states – Puntland and Jubuland – operate as semi-autonomous
regions while Somaliland functions as a de facto independent state, however,
Somalia does not recognize Somaliland’s self-proclaimed independence. Despite
their semi-autonomy, Puntland and Jubaland still vote and have to agree to the
electoral process.
During
discussions held in September 2020, a new electoral model was introduced for
the country to try and ease some of these challenges. The model aimed to hold
elections at two locations within every state versus four for security reasons,
representatives would be selected through collaboration with civil society, traditional
elders and the state government, representatives in the upper house were to be
selected by state parliament and members of both levels of parliament from
Somaliland would be selected at Mogadishu. The model also aimed at increasing
female representation through a 30% quota in both houses of parliament.
However, Puntland and Jubaland refused to sign. Pressure was applied to the two
regions and on 28th January 2021, they agreed to the electoral process. This is
also not the first time the two regions have disagreed during election talks,
the same occurred during the previous two elections.
As
there have been delays in elections previously, the current parliament adopted
a resolution to prevent any constitutional crises should a successor not be elected.
The resolution allows all constitutional institutions, including the
presidency, to remain in office until successors are elected and a handover can
take place. The resolution may assist in avoiding a constitutional crisis;
however, it does not fix the political crisis and mitigate the instability it
has caused.
Despite
the constitutional resolution, opposition leaders are not required to recognize
the president once his term has ended. This is the current feeling in Somalia,
with an alliance of opposition parties calling for a transitional government to
be put in place, kicking President Mohamed out. Opposition leaders have stated
they believe the president is an “existential danger to Somalia” and has
disrupted the electoral process in order to keep himself in power.
Some
opposition leaders believe the president has a dictatorial nature and will do
anything to hang onto power. Puntland’s and Jubaland’s leaders have gone as far
as to say the leader has been stoking nationalism, as a way to collapse the
federal system – a dangerous path to go down in a country where a civil war
lasted for decades, leading to it being declared a ‘failed state’.
Regardless
of the outcome of this election impasse, it will nevertheless have a
long-lasting effect on the democratic hopes of Somalians. The country had hoped
for its first ever smooth transition of power, helping the fragile democracy in
emerging slightly less fragile, but it has proven a difficult task. The
recurring disputes by Puntland and Jubaland and the opposition in general
further prove that progress has not been made since the last election and in
the electoral process. In fact, parliament predicting another delay passed a
resolution to avoid another constitutional crisis where the country had
previously ended up with no legal president.
The lack of progress towards an inclusive election process and stable democracy certainly means Somalia will remain a ‘fragile democracy’ by international standards. The lack of certainty surrounding the country’s future remains, even if a positive outcome is achieved, as there is no guarantee that they will not experience this again.