Somalia’s politicians strike a last-minute deal, but fears of conflict remain high

In a meeting late Thursday, Somalia's prime minister persuaded opposition leaders to postpone mass anti-government protests and apologized for violence last week that targeted candidates in an election that was meant to take place this month but has been delayed indefinitely.
Somalia
is in a protracted constitutional crisis, with opposition leaders claiming that
President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed — commonly known by his nickname “Farmajo”
— has overstayed his mandate. Tensions spiked on Friday last week, leading to
exchanges of gunfire on the streets of the capital, Mogadishu, and heightening
fears that the election dispute could spiral into civil conflict.
Thursday’s
meeting did not yield a new date for the election, and Farmajo, who has become
an increasingly controversial figure, was not directly involved in the
agreement.
While
Somalia’s Western backers heralded the deal negotiated by Prime Minister
Mohamed Hussein Roble as a step in the right direction, security officials said
the potential for conflict remains high. Security forces are under increasing
pressure to take sides amid deepening political divisions.
“As long as there’s no political
agreement, we’re in a phase where we have no idea what will happen regarding
how the different armed forces will react if there is sudden violence,” said
Jihan Abdullahi Hassan, a former senior adviser to Somalia’s defense minister.
Somalia
has an array of military units, some of which are professionalized, federally
controlled and trained by foreign advisers, while others are more closely
aligned with regional governments that have been at odds with the
administration in Mogadishu over how elections should be held.
Efforts
to bring all armed forces under federal control have succeeded in streamlining
payrolls, instituting codes of conduct and restructuring military leadership,
but they have not erased underlying divisions, Hassan said.
“It’s
a predicament,” she said. “The forces are not nationally integrated yet — they
are close, but they are not there yet. We cannot allow them to slide back into
political or clan rivalries.”
In
Mogadishu, the mood Thursday was tense. The city was choked with traffic as
roads were closed ahead of the protests planned for Friday and residents
stocked up on essentials, fearing the demonstrations would be met with bullets.
Under Thursday night’s deal, the opposition agreed to delay the protests for 10
days.
Earlier
this week, the president of one of Somalia’s regions, Puntland, recounted in a
widely viewed speech how Farmajo had boasted to him about having enough armed
forces behind him to stay in power as long as he wanted.
While
a constitution introduced in 2012 sets out guidelines for the creation of a
constitutional court that would adjudicate disputes between Somalia’s member
states, as well as potential presidential impeachment proceedings, neither
Farmajo nor his predecessor took the necessary steps to create the court.
Some
within the security establishment have started to speak out about what they
perceive as Farmajo’s inclination to use various branches of the security
forces to quell any opposition to him.
“No opposition has said, you have to
shoot the president. But on the president’s side, we have been asked to act
strongly against the opposition,” said an aide to Somalia’s police
commissioner, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not
authorized to speak to the media.
A former top army commander, Mohamed Ali Barise, was more blunt in his assessment.