How will Joe Biden approach Erdoğan if he wins?

The United States presidential election is less than
three weeks away and the world is urgently watching to see if President Donald
Trump will get a second chance to lead or instead head for an early exit.
Trump’s rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, is
leading him by wide margins in many polls, owing to an economy in recession and
the president’s chaotic handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. If Biden emerges the
victor in November, it may signal a turn away from Trump’s governing style.
Foreign policy has not played a large role in this
election, but large questions and challenges loom on the horizon for the U.S.
and the nations who have adapted to Trump’s “America First” approach to the
world.
Few countries may have as much to lose in a Trump
defeat as Turkey and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Blaise Misztal, a Turkey-focused research fellow at
the Hudson Institute in Washington, said that if Biden wins, Erdoğan
will lose an important ally in exchange for a figure with little appeal to
Ankara.
“If we listen to the official statements made from
the officials in Ankara, there is no love lost for Joe Biden,” Misztal told
Ahval in a podcast.
“For a lot of personal reasons and policy reasons,
Erdoğan
certainly likes having access to the White House and likes controlling and
leading that relationship at such a high level,” Misztal said.
Trump has been effusive at times in his praise for
Erdoğan,
whom he considers a friend despite often being harshly criticised for his
closeness to the Turkish leader. The two speak frequently, sometimes up to
twice a week, and Erdoğan’s calls are given
priority by Trump according to sources who spoke to CNN.
For his part, Biden called Erdoğan
an “autocrat” in an interview in
January and insisted the Turkish leader must pay a price for actions against
U.S. interests. Compared to Trump’s silence, Biden has spoken out against
Turkey’s actions in the eastern Mediterranean, the recent decision to convert
former church Hagia Sophia into a mosque, and called on Turkey to stop meddling
in Nagorno- Karabakh.
Misztal, however, said that Biden’s statements as a
candidate are not enough of an indicator as to how he would approach Turkey if
he wins, citing consistent disinterest in Washington to dramatically alter
U.S.-Turkey ties.
Instead, he suggested the biggest change will likely
come through a shift in rhetoric rather than action.
“I see a President Biden being more willing to speak
out against Turkish behaviour, but I don’t see the United States having really
figured out this conundrum of what we really want from Turkey,” said Misztal.
Officially, the U.S. and Turkey remain allies under
NATO, but the relationship has gone through a prolonged cooling period in
recent years.
Erdoğan
has long been frustrated by U.S. cooperation with Syria's Kurds across his
southern border, and the refusal of U.S authorities to extradite former Erdoğan
ally Fethullah Gülen for his alleged
involvement in the aborted coup attempt in July 2016.
From the U.S. perspective, officials are frustrated
by what they see as Turkey’s role in undermining the fight against the Islamic
State in Syria, undercutting of sanctions against both Russia and Iran, and
Erdoğan’s use of anti-American
rhetoric for domestic politicking.
Biden, a former chairman of the U.S. Senate’s
Foreign Relations Committee and vice president under Barack Obama, has a long
history of dealings with other world leaders.
In a 2016 interview, Biden described his philosophy
in a way that sounded remarkably similar to President Trump, emphasising
personal rapport with counterparts. The then Vice President even included
mediating between Erdoğan and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu as
an example of this approach.
“It all gets down to the conduct of foreign policy
of being personal. You’ve got to figure out what’s the other (leader’s)
bandwidth,” Biden told The Atlantic. “You have to figure out what is
realistically possible.”
However, Misztal sais that it would be difficult to
consider Biden much of a pureblood realist.
“I think it's really hard to get your finger on what
(Biden’s) worldview is or is going to be,” Misztal said, pointing to some of
the candidate’s recent positions, including convening a summit of world
democracies. Misztal said such suggestions point to more of a post-Cold War
internationalist than a realist.
A Biden administration may not be all bad for
Turkey, as it would come at a time when the U.S. strategic interest in the
Middle East is on the decline. Under Trump, the focus has been on great power
competition, often resulting in cosying up to Turkish rivals like Egypt and
Saudi Arabia.
And while Biden has backed Ankara’s competitor
Greece in the eastern Mediterranean, he has also harshly criticized the leaders
in Cairo and Riyadh for their human rights abuses.
Misztal suggested that increasing U.S. disinterest
will likely persist under Biden, creating a wider regional vacuum that Turkey
can potentially exploit.
However, a lack of engagement will not mean the U.S.
is ready to redefine its relationship with Turkey if that means losing Ankara
to another power’s camp.
“Look, breaking up is hard to do, especially with a
partner who has or could have a pivotal role that Turkey has,” said Misztal.
“So long as there is a binary of being with or against us, it will be very hard
to cut (U.S.) loses.”