In East Med conflict with Turkey, Greece prepares for three scenarios

As tensions between Athens and Ankara continue,
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis spoke with European Council President
Charles Michel on Monday to discuss the “worrying developments in the Eastern
Mediterranean" and the Greek-Egyptian maritime border deal," Greek
government sources told Kathimerini.
Mitsotakis is scheduled to speak with NATO Secretary
General Jens Stoltenberg at 5 p.m. local time.
Athens is charting its course with regard to
relations with Ankara in the face of fresh threats launched by Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the aftermath of the “historic” agreement on
the partial demarcation of Greece’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) with Egypt,
which has changed the balance in the Eastern Mediterranean.
In a meeting he chaired on Friday, Prime Minister
Kyriakos Mitsotakis evaluated the announcement of Ankara’s withdrawal from the
process of exploratory contacts that were to start on August 28 as well as
Erdogan’s statement that “we will repeat the drilling activities” and he had
sent the Barbaros vessel “again on a mission.”
In view of this, Athens and the Hellenic Armed
Forces have been placed on full alert, as an escalation by Ankara cannot be
ruled out.
Within this context, Athens also anticipates that a
new navigational telex could be issued by Ankara, similar to the one for the
Oruc Reis survey vessel for research within the Greek continental shelf, which
brought the two countries to the brink of conflict last month.
If that does occur, the Greek fleet will deploy as
it did in response to the Oruc Reis, sending out the message that exploratory
activities will not be allowed on Greece’s continental shelf.
Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Fatih
Donmez said on Monday that Oruc Reis seismic vessel has reached its destination
where it will conduct seismic research activity, accompanied by two auxiliary
vessels, until Aug. 23.
Against this background, Greece is working on the
following three scenarios: Firstly, that Turkey’s suspension of exploratory
contacts is only temporary, so as not to appear that it will start a dialogue
immediately after a diplomatic defeat – inflicted with the signing of the
Greece-Egypt agreement on their EEZs.
Another scenario is that Ankara uses the agreement
between Athens and Cairo in order to torpedo the process of exploratory
contacts which it was pressured to acquiesce to by Berlin. However, Ankara
would at the same time seek to tread carefully so as not escalate tensions
further.
The third scenario is one where Erdogan “overreacts”
and escalates tensions, testing relations to the extreme. Athens is reportedly
preparing for any eventuality.
However, the trend of increasing refugee flows from
the Turkish coast in recent days has not gone unnoticed, and neither has the
further slide of the Turkish economy.
Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Erdogan will
try to “export” his domestic woes. Alternatively, in view of these problems,
there is also a chance that talks will be held with Athens at a later date and
that Ankara will seek support from the European Union, and in particular from
German Chancellor Angela Merkel.